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Globe-Watch
Global posture is —, with — threats already under way. Most likely to escalate next: —. For the United States, — threats are rated a direct risk, led by —.
No sweep has arrived on schedule. The monitor runs only while its Claude Code session is open.
Threat index over time
The impact-weighted average of every threat's 72-hour chance, scored each sweep. Threats at L5 count in full. The United States line covers only threats rated a direct risk to the US. Dashed lines mark the level boundaries.
The shaded stretch is reconstructed: twice-weekly ratings rebuilt from dated reporting, each made as the situation looked on that day. Points after it come from live sweeps.
Threats to the United States
Direct threats aim at US territory, citizens, forces, critical infrastructure or the financial system. Indirect ones reach the US through allies, prices or supply chains. Most serious first; select a row to see its evidence.
| ID | Threat | US exposure | Level | 72-hour chance | How it reaches the US |
|---|
Threat board
Sorted by severity. Select a row to see the evidence behind it. For threats already under way, the 72-hour chance is the chance of a further step-up.
| ID | Threat | Latest | Status | US | Level | 72-hour chance | Longer outlook | Impact | Trend | Verified | Next trigger |
|---|
72-hour chance by sweep
One chart per threat on one shared scale. Dashed lines mark where one level ends and the next begins. Lines grow as sweeps run.
Level changes
Every time a threat moved up or down a level, newest first. Reconstructed changes link to the reporting they were based on.
| When (UTC) | Threat | Change | What happened | Source |
|---|
Evidence log
Key claims from the latest sweep, each with its Admiralty grade: a letter for how reliable the source is, then a number for how well the claim is confirmed.
| When (UTC) | Item | Claim | Grade | Source |
|---|
No claims match this filter.
Coming up
Dated events that could move one or more threats.
| Date | Event | Threats |
|---|
Sweep log
Every sweep, newest first. FULL sweeps cover every category; DELTA sweeps recheck the riskiest threats and scan for breaking news.
| When (UTC) | Mode | Posture | FLASH | Headline |
|---|
How to read the ratings
Escalation level
The chance of a significant event within 72 hours: a blackout, an attack, a cyber disruption, a supply-chain break, a banking failure or an outbreak crossing its threshold.
Source reliability
A completely reliable: an official agency or primary data feed. B usually reliable: a major wire service or outlet. C fairly reliable: regional outlets, trackers, think tanks. D not usually reliable: a belligerent's state media or a partisan source. E unreliable. F cannot be judged.
Information credibility
1 confirmed by independent sources. 2 probably true. 3 possibly true. 4 doubtful. 5 improbable. 6 cannot be judged. A side's claims about its own successes stay at 3 or worse until someone independent confirms them.
Impact and trend
Impact runs from I1, local, to I5, global and systemic. Trend compares each threat with the sweep before: ↑ rising, ↓ falling, → steady.
About Globe-Watch
Non-partisan by method. Globe-Watch rates events on evidence, not on which side they favour. The same rules apply to every government, military and armed group: a party's claims about its own successes stay at "possibly true" or lower until an independent source confirms them, and the state media of any party to a conflict is graded as not usually reliable, whichever side it serves.
Public sources only. Every rating draws on existing, publicly available sources: official government, military and intergovernmental releases; open infrastructure and network data from grid operators, internet-outage monitors, aircraft and shipping trackers, and hazard and space-weather feeds; and established news outlets. Nothing comes from leaks, private intelligence or paywalled data. Each claim links to where it came from and carries an Admiralty grade, so you can check it yourself. The Sources menu at the top of the page lists all 117.
How it is made. An automated, AI-assisted pipeline sweeps these sources about every 30 minutes and applies the rating method described under How to read the ratings. It can be wrong or late. Treat it as a starting point, and check the linked sources before acting.